High Energy Prices Reshape the Dutch Solar Market – A New Era for Solar and Storage

The Dutch solar market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. According to leading market analysts Hrvoje Medarac (Head of Dutch New Energy Research) and Gijs de Koning (chief editor of Solar365.nl), solar panels are increasingly purchased as part of wider home electrification efforts — rather than as a standalone investment.

High energy prices are driving this shift, incentivising households to invest in home batteries, heat pumps and air conditioners, with solar complementing these investments. Preliminary data shows residential PV sales in the first half of 2026 at just under 200 MW, compared to 548 MW across the whole of 2025. Commercial PV sales are estimated at around 843 MW for H1 2026, versus 1,515 MW in 2025.

At Sunlink (Xiamen), we see this as a pivotal moment for the Dutch market — and one that solar developers, installers, and storage providers must navigate carefully.

Why Residential Solar Sales Are Slowing

The slowdown in residential PV sales is not due to lack of interest in solar, but rather a change in consumer behaviour:

• Smaller system sizes: Households focused on self-consumption need fewer panels than those maximising export under net metering.

• System expansions: Many homeowners are adding a few panels to existing systems, but registration rules do not capture these additions — only whole new systems are recorded.

• Integration with electrification: Solar is now being bundled with batteries, heat pumps, and air conditioners as part of a holistic home energy strategy.

The end of net metering (salderingsregeling), scheduled for 2027, is the single biggest factor reshaping residential solar economics. While this makes standalone solar less profitable, it creates a powerful boost for the battery market as households seek new ways to use their systems to keep energy bills low.

The Storage Boom: 5 GWh by End of 2026

Across all market segments, the Dutch storage market is growing significantly. Analysts forecast around 5 GWh of new storage systems by the end of 2026. This growth is driven by:

• Grid congestion: Over 14,000 companies and institutions are on waiting lists for electricity at regional grid operators (totalling over 9 GW of requests), while national grid operator TenneT’s waiting list contains 38 GW of connection requests. In many cases, batteries and solar are simply needed to continue production because the grid cannot provide the necessary energy.

• Net-metering phaseout: Households with solar will lose the ability to offset consumption against export at retail rates, making self-consumption and storage the new economic drivers.

• High energy prices: Volatile and elevated electricity prices make the arbitrage value of batteries increasingly attractive.

Uncertainty Around Feed-in Compensation

A significant source of uncertainty is the post-net-metering feed-in regime. Energy companies are required to pay a “fair price” for exported electricity, but they are currently also charging feed-in costs — making the net payment in most cases less than one cent. These feed-in costs were originally introduced to recover costs from the net-metering scheme, but they may not disappear when the scheme ends.

The Dutch watchdog (ACM) still needs to rule on whether this practice is fair. If the regulator decides in favour of consumers and sets a minimum feed-in compensation, this could boost solar sales in the second half of 2026. Until then, the residential market remains shrouded in uncertainty.

Negative Prices Challenge Utility-Scale Solar

For utility-scale solar, the main challenge is negative energy prices. In the first half of 2026, the Netherlands recorded 248 negative price hours. According to Medarac and de Koning, negative prices are barely mitigated by government subsidies such as the SDE++ programme.

“New utility-scale systems without storage simply are not profitable.”

The latest SDE++ round (announced July 2026) allocated 773 MW of solar across 86 projects. However, the Dutch government has announced plans to phase out the SDE++ scheme in 2027 and replace it with two-way contracts for difference (CfDs) in line with EU market reforms. The 2026 SDE++ round is set to take place from October 27 to November 26.

The Big Picture: Netherlands at Nearly 30 GW

The Netherlands added over 2 GW of solar in 2025, taking cumulative capacity to just under 30 GW. The market is clearly mature — but the next phase will look very different from the last.

Sunlink’s Perspective: Navigating the Transition

At Sunlink, we see the Dutch market shift as both a challenge and an opportunity:

For residential installers: The era of “sell solar panels and walk away” is ending. Customers now expect integrated solutions — solar + battery + heat pump + smart energy management. Bundling storage with PV is no longer optional; it is the core value proposition. Offer systems that are future-proofed for the post-net-metering world, with optimised self-consumption and smart charging capabilities.

For commercial and C&I developers: Grid congestion is the dominant constraint. On-site solar + storage is increasingly a business continuity necessity, not just an economic choice. Offer solutions that reduce grid dependence and provide backup power during peak constraints.

For utility-scale developers: Standalone solar without storage is no longer bankable in the Netherlands. Negative prices are here to stay. Pairing PV with BESS — and securing revenue from both energy arbitrage and grid services — is the only viable path forward. The transition from SDE++ to CfDs will also require careful financial modelling.

For storage providers: The Dutch market is poised for explosive growth. With 5 GWh forecast for 2026 alone, and residential storage expected to account for a significant share, the opportunity is substantial. Focus on systems that integrate seamlessly with existing PV, offer smart energy management, and are compatible with emerging flexibility markets.

Conclusion

The Dutch solar market is entering a new era. High energy prices, grid congestion, and the 2027 net-metering phaseout are reshaping consumer behaviour — from standalone solar investments to integrated home electrification with storage. Residential PV sales may be slowing, but the battery market is booming. Utility-scale solar without storage is no longer viable.

At Sunlink, we are ready to support our Dutch partners with integrated solar and storage solutions designed for this new reality. Whether you are an installer, developer, or asset owner, the message is clear: solar alone is no longer enough — solar plus storage is the future of the Dutch energy transition.

Ready to navigate the Dutch solar market transition? Contact Sunlink to discuss our integrated PV and battery storage solutions for residential, C&I, and utility-scale projects.